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Old 08-24-2015, 08:04 PM   #1
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Default Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

I can't help but watching the disaster on Wall St right now. People are freaking out. The last 3 days have been the lowest the market has dropped in years. Today was one of the top 10 lowest point drops in history (#8). Friday was also in the top 10 (#10).

Honestly, I don't see a lot to be hopeful about. I don't think things are horrible. We aren't in a recession. However, I can't see a sector, fund, country or regional market, or a lot of stocks that are on the rise. This could be a great time to buy.

In May, I dumped half of my portfolio and moved it into cash. On Thursday, I dumped another 15% into cash. I know a lot of people, especially retirees, could be hurting right now.

The question is - correction, crash, or bear market? Investment and economy experts are all over the place with predictions. Maybe some people aren't paying attention right now. They should - it might get worse.
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Old 08-24-2015, 08:49 PM   #2
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Default Re: Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

AAPL got cheap (and this at P/E 10.46), was hoping it would stay there, but it rebounded. I used to play this 3x bank sector bear ETF, and it went up 14% today: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FAZ

This may go on for a while, but the economy is more sound than '08-'09. It may be the hysteria will drive the DJIA (et al) below the natural bottom, and there'll be some real opportunities out there.
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Old 08-25-2015, 04:15 PM   #3
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Default Re: Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

After early excitement today and a huge jump early today with the DOW going up 450 points, we end up with another loss. I still think there is more correction to come.

I know people see it as a bounce back. Yes, the economy is that bad off. We aren't in a recession. However, economic data is mixed. Share price is still too high based on earnings. I don't think we may see a significant drop coming but we may bounce around for a bit.
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Old 08-25-2015, 04:19 PM   #4
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Default Re: Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

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Originally Posted by uscjeremynca View Post
Yes, the economy is that bad off.
No it's not.

Some people just want it to be bad. Mainly b/c they hate the president.
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Old 08-25-2015, 05:03 PM   #5
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Default Re: Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

I've been thinking about this. I think now is the time to raise the rates.

Our economy is steady, unemployment is low, oil is low, rates remain affordable, and the housing market is strong. We can handle a small bump in interest rates. If people haven't taken advantage of the low rates by now, that's their fault. Granted, the Fed rate doesn't directly affect mortgage rates (I get that). However, we are in a really good place to handle this.

Many of our big markets are made up of businesses who do business overseas. With a strong dollar and struggling global economies, our exports will remain low. In the past, we've lowered our rates to boost our economy. Why not bump the rates to help the economies of others? As I stated, we can handle it right now.

An increase in rates will not hurt us too much right now. We are steady. I think people have the money to make the 4th quarter of this year (the holiday shopping season) a good one. If global economies can bounce back, I think that will help things even more.

We can either wait for the other economies to recover or do an anti-stimulus effect (the opposite of what we do to boost our economy) and raise our rates. As long as there isn't a panic in the market as a result, I think this could be good.
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Old 08-25-2015, 05:05 PM   #6
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Default Re: Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

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Originally Posted by Nureye View Post
No it's not.

Some people just want it to be bad. Mainly b/c they hate the president.
I meant "isn't" not "is". Typo there. See my fuller response above in #5 to get a clarification.
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Old 08-25-2015, 05:07 PM   #7
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Default Re: Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

Bye, Bye rally.
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Old 08-25-2015, 05:36 PM   #8
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Default Re: Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

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Originally Posted by GoldenSpur7 View Post
Bye, Bye rally.
What was this rally actually built on? Nothing more than a bounce back.

Let's look at the economy. People have money. The rising housing market is an indicator that people are willing to spend that money. The danger of that is that the money they have right now is being tied up long term. I think this is an even bigger indicator of why we need to raise rates.

Want to stimulate more business activity in the economy? Raise the rates and let people take the money they have and spend it on something other than housing. As rates go up, this will deter some buyers looking for upgrades. Rates will still be good but more people will stop looking to take advantage of rates and put money elsewhere. As the holiday shopping season comes, increased rates may spur some to start spending money elsewhere.

As I stated, I don't believe we are bad off. Rates won't send unemployment sky rocketing. People still have jobs and money. Force them to spend it in other places by raising rates. I believe we will see a stimulus effect in other economies as well as our export business (which could boost our own).
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Old 08-26-2015, 12:03 PM   #9
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Default Re: Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

Quote:
Originally Posted by uscjeremynca View Post
What was this rally actually built on? Nothing more than a bounce back.

Let's look at the economy. People have money. The rising housing market is an indicator that people are willing to spend that money. The danger of that is that the money they have right now is being tied up long term. I think this is an even bigger indicator of why we need to raise rates.
Yes, this is what I was alluding to in the first post - in 2008 the bottom was dropping out. The banks weren't capitalized enough to sustain operations, much less get back to lending. There's money out there now (I've seen reports as much as $17 trillion "on the sidelines"). While well-intentioned in some respects, policies like quantitative easing (which has ended) were protecting large investors from having to take risks. I think the real challenge for the American economy is how to lure that capital into investment.

Quote:
As I stated, I don't believe we are bad off. Rates won't send unemployment sky rocketing. People still have jobs and money. Force them to spend it in other places by raising rates. I believe we will see a stimulus effect in other economies as well as our export business (which could boost our own).
It looks like a lot of the pushback is coming from bond market shills: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bon...ous-2015-08-24
Whether those are scare tactics or not would be an issue here.

There's global impact from China's problems, especially in commodities markets. This new scare originated there - average investors were pouring money into the market (with politburo encouragement), and the market makers over there finally pulled the plug, and started a sell-off.
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Old 08-26-2015, 01:50 PM   #10
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Default Re: Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

Here's the issue - too much of our US stock market is influenced by what happens globally. Investors advice us to balance our portfolios to reduce risk. Why isn't the market and, more importantly, the companies in the market may doing the same thing given the indicators that are clear?

We need to shift away from global and focus more on domestic right now. With economy steady and global struggling, focus on the 4th quarter holiday season and boost the bottom line by increasing sales to those who have purchasing power and money right now - Americans. This can boost the economy, increase the bottom line, and boost consumer confidence shifting more of the what we are seeing in the market based on domestic rather than global factors.
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Old 08-26-2015, 06:35 PM   #11
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Default Re: Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

Quote:
Originally Posted by uscjeremynca View Post
Here's the issue - too much of our US stock market is influenced by what happens globally. Investors advice us to balance our portfolios to reduce risk. Why isn't the market and, more importantly, the companies in the market may doing the same thing given the indicators that are clear?

We need to shift away from global and focus more on domestic right now. With economy steady and global struggling, focus on the 4th quarter holiday season and boost the bottom line by increasing sales to those who have purchasing power and money right now - Americans. This can boost the economy, increase the bottom line, and boost consumer confidence shifting more of the what we are seeing in the market based on domestic rather than global factors.
I agree about needing to get the consumer sector jumping. But from what I've been reading, a lot of people with purchasing power are saving. Stagnation of working-class wages isn't helping, either.

One positive now is the low gas prices, leaving more disposable income out there. Downside is the reduced demand is probably going to hurt the domestic energy boom that's been driving some growth.
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Old 08-26-2015, 06:43 PM   #12
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Default Re: Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

614 point recovery today, and I don't think the volatility is over yet. This is the sister (bull) ETF for the one I posted earlier, up 10+% today: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FAS
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Old 08-26-2015, 06:52 PM   #13
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Default Re: Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

The China factor isn't going away......neither is the global violence.....anybody that says they know what's going to happen, he's the guy that's always wrong.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/24/led-c...his-ahead.html

Here's the guy that called the crash.
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Old 08-27-2015, 06:35 PM   #14
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Default Re: Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

Up 369. Any predictions? I'm thinking tomorrow or monday we'll see a good drop.
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Old 08-27-2015, 06:52 PM   #15
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Default Re: Stock market - crash, correction, or Bear?

Crash , the fed has been buying up mortgages for years with printed paper , they will collect on the mortgage soon then we can sell our stock for premium low prices .. But I hope not
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