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Old 07-06-2017, 08:24 PM   #181
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Default Re: We Don't Use Star Ratings - Will Muschamp

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Originally Posted by Wisercock View Post
Seriously? It is obvious.

If UGA wanted Valentine instead of White they would have his commitment, and they didn't take White because they couldn't get Valentine. White was rated the best RB in this year's class long before he committed to UGA.
Oh I am convinced now SMDH
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Old 07-06-2017, 09:16 PM   #182
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Default Re: We Don't Use Star Ratings - Will Muschamp

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Based on his film Valentine could be a monster for us.
One of the ironic things about the discussion of Teague vs. Valentine vs. Fenwick is that all have essentially the same 247 composite score: Teague (0.866 - 23 RB); Valentine (0.862 - 13 APB); Fenwick (0.866 - 11 APB), yet a number of people perceive Teague as being the superior prospect at back. They all averaged almost 10 yds / carry last year, but they offer different things. Teague was a better known commodity and has been more productive to this point in his HS career so we offered him first, but that doesn't mean that he's going to be better or even that we would rather have him over the others. Personally, I was most excited about Valentine (speed), and I think that either Fenwick or Teague would make a good complement to him (perhaps more so Fenwick, because of his size).

With respect to stars, the reality is that any team will take virtually any 5 star, not because of their ranking but because they're virtually all outstanding players with a high likeliness for succeeding (Zamir White at RB, for example). The main reasons that some 5 stars and very high 4 stars don't succeed and move on to the NFL are injuries, dumb-assery and crappy work ethics, and inability to outcompete other outstanding people at their programs. To me, the difference between low 4 stars and mid- to high-3 stars is often negligible, so I want coaches who are able to evaluate those people and coach them up in our system. Everything so far suggests that Muschamp and his assistants have the ability to identify 'lower rated' players with great potential (e.g., Dowdle), a number of whom end up moving up in the recruiting rankings after we offer (e.g., Channing Tindall). There was a running joke in another thread about Muschamp serving as the recruiting service for the SE because of his ability to identify talent. Next up will be landing a few more high profile prospects like Jamyest - hopefully that will at least be Wonnum, Tindall and Sandidge this year.

Last edited by GeoCocky66; 07-07-2017 at 04:39 AM..
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Old 07-06-2017, 09:32 PM   #183
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Default Re: We Don't Use Star Ratings - Will Muschamp

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Originally Posted by GeoCocky66 View Post
One of the ironic things about the discussion of Teague vs. Valentine vs. Fenwick is that all have essentially the same 247 composite score: Teague (0.866 - 23 RB); Valentine (0.862 - 13 APB); Fenwick (0.866 - 11 APB), yet a number of people perceive Teague as being the superior prospect at back. They all averaged almost 10 yds / carry last year, but they offer different things. Teague was a better known commodity and has been more productive to this point in his HS career so we offered him first, but that doesn't mean that he's going to be better or even that we would rather have him over the others. Personally, I was most excited about Valentine (speed), and I think that either Fenwick or Teague would make a good complement to him (perhaps more so Fenwick, because of his size).

With respect to stars, the reality is that any team will take virtually any 5 star, not because of their ranking but because they're virtually all outstanding players with a high likeliness for succeeding (Zamir White at RB, for example). The main reasons that most 5 stars and very high 4 stars don't succeed and move on to the NFL are injuries, dumb-assery and crappy work ethics, and inability to outcompete other outstanding people at their programs. To me, the difference between low 4 stars and mid- to high-3 stars is often slight, so I want coaches who are able to evaluate those people and coach them up in our system. Everything so far suggests that Muschamp and his assistants have the ability to identify 'lower rated' players with great potential (e.g., Dowdle), a number of whom end up moving up in the recruiting rankings after we offer (e.g., Channing Tindall). There was a running joke in another thread about Muschamp serving as the recruiting service for the SE because of his ability to identify talent. Next up will be landing a few more high profile prospects like Jamyest - hopefully that will at least be Wonnum, Tindall and Sandidge this year.
Should be noted that RB of all positions other than OL has the lowest draft rate for 5*. The explanation for the line is easy, difficult to project how speed and footwork will mesh with requirement of more weight; RB on the other hand is not so easy to explain away.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...aching-the-nfl

Last edited by cjerickson; 07-06-2017 at 09:45 PM.. Reason: forgot to include link
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Old 07-06-2017, 10:02 PM   #184
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Default Re: We Don't Use Star Ratings - Will Muschamp

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I just don't think that argument holds up under scrutiny.

How many SEC championships have been won by teams whose roster was made up primarily by 3* players starting at critical positions on offense and defense?

Our best teams under Spurrier were made up of four and five star players like Lattimore, Clowney, Cann, Shell, Davis, Jeffery, Ellington and Gilmore. We would not have won 11 games 3 years in a row without players of that caliber. But it still wasn't enough to get us into the SEC Championship game because other teams had more talent. It was not just bad luck.

I watched a team that had Carolina on their jersey in the Championship game in 2010. That wasn't us? Damn USC ticket office defrauded me I guess. Then again, we only won 10 that year. jk The 2010 team under achieved given the talent level on that team, then again Cam Newton was an incredible player who gave everyone fits straight thru to the NC. Still should not have beaten us that badly, just one of those days when everything that could go wrong did.

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Old 07-07-2017, 01:30 AM   #185
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Default Re: We Don't Use Star Ratings - Will Muschamp

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So it is just a coincidence that the top teams have the most 4 and 5 star rated players? And those guys don't get those ratings AFTER they are offered by Alabama. The point is the ratings are generally correct.

Coaches have to sort through information for thousands of high school senior football players. They have to rely on services because they can't evaluate them all.
Who said it was a coincidence? The best players often get the highest ratings. I don't see how this is evidence that players are offered based on their rivals rating.

Kids are getting offered as sophomores and freshman, or even earlier. I think there was a thread about a 9 year old getting an offer recently. Is that kid a 5* on Rivals already? If coaches have so many players to sort through how are they finding time to offer scholarships to all of these Freshman and middle schoolers that haven't been vetted by Rivals?

Why do we employee analysts if coach is just getting on rivals and looking at how many stars everybody has?
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Old 07-07-2017, 08:59 AM   #186
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Default Re: We Don't Use Star Ratings - Will Muschamp

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Should be noted that RB of all positions other than OL has the lowest draft rate for 5*. The explanation for the line is easy, difficult to project how speed and footwork will mesh with requirement of more weight; RB on the other hand is not so easy to explain away.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...aching-the-nfl
RBs get rated based on the obvious stat of rushing yards. But there are a lot of intangibles that are not covered in that number.

In college, they have to be able to block, which is not part of the star rating. They have to be able to catch the ball, another stat that gets largely ignored in HS. Plus learn more complex schemes, carry out fakes, etc.

Then you have the variables in HS. How good was the O Line? How good were the opposing defenses? How good were the O Lines for the other RBs that he is being rated against? Does their speed and size translate to college, where everyone is faster stronger?

In HS, there are system QBs - guys that play in wide-open attacks and put up big numbers, but are not going to be stars in college because they lack exceptional talent. Likewise, some schools emphasize the run and focus on developing RBs and big O Linemen that can run block. If the RB comes from a school that has RBs with big numbers every year, then the RB may not be that good despite the yardage. He still has to have strength, instincts, speed, cutting ability, quick burst, etc. to set him apart.

Valentine has speed, Fenwick has a frame that will allow him to be a big power back. Big upsides. Having said that, White is higher rated because he has already realized a lot of his potential, and can be a star from Day One.
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Old 07-07-2017, 09:12 AM   #187
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Default Re: We Don't Use Star Ratings - Will Muschamp

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The main reasons that some 5 stars and very high 4 stars don't succeed and move on to the NFL are injuries, dumb-assery and crappy work ethics, and inability to outcompete other outstanding people at their programs.
Good comments.

I'll add this: Many of the higher rated guys matured faster than the lower rated ones (men among boys).
After they all move into their 20's, that offset disappears as many of the lower rated players develop and mature. This is one of great faults of rating teens who all mature at different stages.
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Old 07-18-2017, 07:31 PM   #188
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Default Re: We Don't Use Star Ratings - Will Muschamp

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Good comments.

I'll add this: Many of the higher rated guys matured faster than the lower rated ones (men among boys).
After they all move into their 20's, that offset disappears as many of the lower rated players develop and mature. This is one of great faults of rating teens who all mature at different stages.
This is exactly right
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Old 07-18-2017, 10:50 PM   #189
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Default Re: We Don't Use Star Ratings - Will Muschamp

People need to understand that rivals, 247, etc. are reporting based on their own evaluations and the info they get from coaches. The best people at evaluating talent are working for football programs. Not rivals and 247. So, no matter how you want to frame the argument, the football programs themselves are the ones with the most information and the recruiting sites come second.

Recruiting sites look to see what the programs are doing. Football programs do not look to recruiting sites.

Muschamp is going to make his evaluation. Most of the time, coaches and recruiting sites will recognize elite talent as elite. A 5 star guy on 247 probably has a similar rating on Muschamp's board. The real work comes with the 4 and 3 star guys. Lots of wiggle room there.

But no one here listens to any kind of reason..... "BUT BAMA GETS THE 5 STARS!!1!!1!"
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Old 07-19-2017, 07:50 AM   #190
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Default Re: We Don't Use Star Ratings - Will Muschamp

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But no one here listens to any kind of reason..... "BUT BAMA GETS THE 5 STARS!!1!!1!"
And look at their trophy case. I think that is the hardest thing to get people to look past. We has thr best success when we had guys like clowney, Gilmore, lattimore, jeffrey, etc.
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Old 07-19-2017, 09:06 AM   #191
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Default Re: We Don't Use Star Ratings - Will Muschamp

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And look at their trophy case. I think that is the hardest thing to get people to look past. We has thr best success when we had guys like clowney, Gilmore, lattimore, jeffrey, etc.
To be fair you have to look at who their coach is. Many coaches can get 4 and 5 star talent and do absolutely nothing with it. Saban is the reason for all their success.
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Old 07-19-2017, 11:18 AM   #192
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Default Re: We Don't Use Star Ratings - Will Muschamp

Bama generally gets good players and develops them. A bama offer > five star rating.
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